Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study

BMJ 2017;358:j2856

This modelling study aims to forecast dementia prevalence with a dynamic modelling approach that integrates calendar trends in dementia incidence with those for mortality and cardiovascular disease.  Age specific dementia incidence is declining. The number of people with dementia in England and Wales is likely to increase by 57% from 2016 to 2040. This increase is mainly driven by improved life expectancy.

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